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In the five years since the end of the Great Recession, the economy has made considerable progress in recovering from the largest and most sustained loss of employment in the United States since the Great Depression.
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There is always some chance of recession in any year. But the evidence suggests that expansions don't die of old age.
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New classical economics was the starting point for a rightward shift in economics that went against the idea that monetary policy can improve macroeconomic outcomes.
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The Federal Reserve's objectives of maximum employment and price stability do not, by themselves, ensure a strong pace of economic growth or an improvement in living standards. The most important factor determining living standards is productivity growth, defined as increases in how much can be produced in an hour of work.
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Expanded credit access has helped households maintain living standards when suffering job loss, illness, or other unexpected contingencies.
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Will capitalist economies operate at full employment in the absence of routine intervention? Certainly not. Are deviations from full employment a social problem? Obviously.
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New policy tools, which helped the Federal Reserve respond to the financial crisis and Great Recession, are likely to remain useful in dealing with future downturns.
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Some degree of inequality in income and wealth, of course, would occur even with completely equal opportunity because variations in effort, skill, and luck will produce variations in outcomes.
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While admirers of capitalism, we also to a certain extent believe it has limitations that require government intervention in markets to make them work.
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My bottom line is that monetary policy should react to rising prices for houses or other assets only insofar as they affect the central bank's goal variables - output, employment, and inflation.
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Maturity transformation is a central part of the economic function of banks and many other types of financial intermediaries.
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It seems to me that women have made an awful lot of progress, but they probably remain underrepresented at the highest levels of most organizations, for a variety of reasons. And it's probably going to take a long time to change that.
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When you're unemployed for six months or a year, it is hard to qualify for a lease, so even the option of relocating to find a job is often off the table.
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Individuals out of work for an extended period can become less employable as they lose the specific skills acquired in their previous jobs and also lose the habits needed to hold down any job.
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To me, the greatest asset of the Fed is the people. We have a tremendously dedicated staff... They feel proud to work for the Fed because this is such a competent, professional and well-respected organization.
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Firms are not always willing to cut wages, even if there are people lined up outside the gates to work. So why don't they?
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The outlook for the economy, as always, is highly uncertain.
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One common way of judging whether housing's price is in line with its fundamental value is to consider the ratio of housing prices to rents. This is analogous to the ratio of prices to dividends for stocks.
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A clear lesson of history is that a 'sine qua non' for sustained economic recovery following a financial crisis is a thoroughgoing repair of the financial system.
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Models used to describe and predict inflation commonly distinguish between changes in food and energy prices - which enter into total inflation - and movements in the prices of other goods and services - that is, core inflation.
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Efforts to promote financial stability through adjustments in interest rates would increase the volatility of inflation and employment. As a result, I believe a macro-prudential approach to supervision and regulation needs to play the primary role.
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A crucial responsibility of any central bank is to control inflation, the average rate of increase in the prices of a broad group of goods and services.
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During the 1970s, inflation expectations rose markedly because the Federal Reserve allowed actual inflation to ratchet up persistently in response to economic disruptions - a development that made it more difficult to stabilize both inflation and employment.
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Nationally, the share of mortgages that are underwater fell by about one-half between 2011 and 2014.