Ray Dalio Quotes
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Imagine if you had baseball cards that showed all the performance stats for your people: batting averages, home runs, errors, ERAs, win/loss records. You could see what they did well and poorly and call on the right people to play the right positions in a very transparent way.
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What I'm trying to say is that for the average investor, what I would encourage them to do is to understand that there's inflation and growth. It can go higher and lower and to have four different portfolios essentially that make up your entire portfolio that gets you balanced.
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If it didn't happen in your life before, then you're not paying attention you don't think it's possible. But almost all important events never happen in your life before.
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I think that the first thing is you should have a strategic asset allocation mix that assumes that you don't know what the future is going to hold.
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I think so many people are reactive... they see things in a short term way they're right up against it.
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When growth is slower-than-expected, stocks go down. When inflation is higher-than-expected, bonds go down. When inflation is lower-than-expected, bonds go up.
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Competitiveness is really what it costs you per man-hour to get you what you want. In other words, there's an education level that plays into the mix and so if it's inexpensive to buy an hour of real good education in places like China versus the U.S., that factors in.
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There are two main drivers of asset class returns - inflation and growth.
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Almost everything is like a machine.
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It all comes down to interest rates. As an investor, all you're doing is putting up a lump-sump payment for a future cash flow.
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I'm just saying that if you understand how the economic machine works, it just works like a machine. There are cause-effect relationships.
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So how does the machine work that you have a financial crisis? How does deleveraging work - what is the nature of that machine? And what is human nature, and how do you raise a community of people to run a business?
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I don't get caught up in the moment.
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An economy is not a complicated thing; it just has a lot of moving parts.
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The big question is: When will the term structure of interest rates change? That's the question to be worried about.
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Treat your life like a game.
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The economy is like a machine.
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When people get at each other's throat, the rich and the poor and the Left and the Right and so on, and you have a basic breakdown, that becomes very threatening.
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I believe that the biggest problem that humanity faces is an ego sensitivity to finding out whether one is right or wrong and identifying what one's strengths and weaknesses are.
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The world is still in deleveraging.
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In China anything less than 6% growth is a recession meaning that it also causes financial problems and it's disruptive and it's a problem.
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Demand is best measured in terms of spending. You know, I think in traditional economics, it's a mistake to measure it in terms of the quantity of goods.
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Nature is a machine. The family is a machine. The life cycle is like a machine.