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Some think that by preparing to deal with crises you make them more likely. I think the wiser judgment is the contrary. In this area at least, if you want peace or stability, it's better to prepare for war or instability.
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The plausible outcomes range from the gradual and benign to the more precipitous and damaging.
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In the financial system we have today, with less risk concentrated in banks, the probability of systemic financial crises may be lower than in traditional bank-centered financial systems.
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The recognition that things that are not sustainable will eventually come to an end does not give us much of a guide to whether the transition will be calm or exciting.
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The choice is between which mistake is easier to correct: underdoing it or overdoing it.
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Financial crises require governments.
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Monetary policy itself cannot sensibly be directed at reducing imbalances.
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Never before in modern times has so much of the world been simultaneously hit by a confluence of economic and financial turmoil such as we are now living through.