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China frequently confounds stock market prognosticators because it has a penchant for straying markedly from other broad global indexes year-by-year over the decades - even from emerging markets. It's hit or miss.
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Indeed, bull markets are fueled by successive waves of prior skeptics finally capitulating as their fears fade. Eventually, fear turns to euphoria, and that's the stuff of bubbles.
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I can find only one bull market, in 1935, that didn't have some material indigestion within its first 12 months.
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The more you talk about investing problems, the worse you feel. Instead of complaining, it's better to do something.
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If you can predict where the market's going, just do what you can predict. If you can't, which is the presumption of dollar cost averaging or time cost averaging, either one, then you're trying to ease in. But if the market rises more than it falls most of the time, easing in is, by definition, a loser's game.
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The latter part of bull markets are typically led by stocks that are seen then as high quality, but the ones that do best are the ones that weren't seen as such high quality before.
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I've done well over time but made lots of mistakes, too. Learn from your mistakes.
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Global stocks bottomed in June 1921, but global economies didn't hit bottom for fully two more years.
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The upward move at the beginning of a bull market is almost always huge compared with the vacillations late in the bear market. If you try to pick a bottom, you will miss a good part of the action.
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The average mutual fund holding period for equity or fixed income is only about three years. It's too short.
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Fracking opens up vast tracts of the U.S. to exploitation by gas drillers. There's enough energy under our feet to last us for decades, maybe centuries.
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When I was a young man in the 1970s, tech firms were scattered across the developed world. Since then, America has come to dominate tech almost totally.
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The stock market is a discounter of all known information.
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When the economies of emerging markets don't just grow but beat expectations, there's scarcely a mention.
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To me 'The Big Easy' is shorthand for owning big stocks that are easy for wary investors to buy into. These stocks tend to outperform during the back half of bull markets.
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A constant in my approach to investing: You should think politically but unconventionally.
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Investors covet past improvements but also always believe pricing unimaginable future creativity and efficiency gains is Pollyannaish. And they're always wrong. Bet on it.
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The world is filled with successful small businesses that stay small.
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One component of the leading economic indicators is the yield curve. Bond investors keep a close eye on this, as it illustrates the spread or difference between long-term interest rates and short-term ones.
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Windmills and solar cells are carbon-free sources of electricity. But they are costly. If you've been investing in those, give it up. That game is effectively over.
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Despite its many critics, hydraulic fracturing will change the nature of energy production.
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Most investors give too much credence to the theory that prices are rational; they presume that a market collapse must have been justified by serious economic trouble.
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In history, the evidence is overwhelming: Stock market bottoms happen, and then stocks jolt upwards while the economy keeps getting worse - sometimes by a lot and for a long time.
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My firm has 25,000 high-net-worth clients. A typical account would be that of a couple aged 65 and 60 who need their money to last the rest of their lives, 25 to 35 years.