Ian Stannard Quotes
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As well as hints from Asian authorities that they are going to diversify, we now have the U.S. acknowledging it. It's going to put the dollar under a bit of pressure.
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They've raised their inflation and growth forecasts, which suggests that the ECB thinks the European economy is improving and requires more rate hikes. These comments have helped the euro.
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The yen has retraced some of its recent losses against the dollar, but expectations of a strong U.S. consumer confidence number are keeping the dollar broadly supported.
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Both have the potential to provide dollar with negative surprises.
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It's just a little bit of a correction on the yen front. The Nikkei (stock market average) was down quite sharply overnight but everything points to a stronger yen still developing.
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The outlook for interest rates is still positive. Canada's economy is still moving ahead, keeping expectations of higher rates alive.
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The sentiment is turning dollar negative -- probably the biggest factor putting the dollar under pressure is the rise in oil prices and rise in gold prices.
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The Fed will be pausing after raising rates in May. Sterling is going to hold up reasonably well in the near term.
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The message from officials is that the impact from Katrina will be limited.
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I see euro/dollar testing the $1.1870 low in the next couple of weeks as there is no easy solution to this.
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Portfolio flows had been the main driving force behind dollar strength. During the summer months we see a slowdown in financial market activity, and this reduces the flows into the U.S. and hence reduces support for the dollar.
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Under the grand coalition agreement, some compromise will obviously have to take place for things to work.
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This adds to the impression that Asian central banks are going to be prepared to raise interest rates, and ultimately allow more strength in their currencies.
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The dollar is coming under pressure across the board, following the FOMC because of the dissenter.
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There is quite a lot of news coming out of Japan, which I think is putting the yen under some weakness.
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The reform mandate is probably not going to be as strong as it would have been under an outright victory by Merkel.
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There is increasing scope for the dollar to come under pressure. Once again, we see structural issues starting to work against the dollar.
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The market is assuming that the ECB won't be hiking rates in the next couple of months. The way is open for the euro to decline further.
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The news from the U.S. continues to come out encouraging for the dollar.
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This is the worst outcome possible for the euro. Not only is there no clear winner, it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition and there seems to be hostility to the idea of a grand coalition. It looks as if it could drag on for weeks if not months and that uncertainty is the worst thing for markets.
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The minutes are a very important event today, with any adjustment suggesting that the peak in rates is close, as we believe it is, seen putting the dollar under further pressure.
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Gains in commodities provided a positive backdrop for the Canadian dollar.
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If the minutes are in a similar tone to that of the FOMC statement, then the dollar should stay supported rather than gain significantly.
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Speculation regarding a ECB rate hike is likely to start building further, especially coming on top of the more hawkish comments we have been seeing from the ECB officials, so that will be euro supportive.