Ian Stannard Quotes
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This is the worst outcome possible for the euro. Not only is there no clear winner, it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition and there seems to be hostility to the idea of a grand coalition. It looks as if it could drag on for weeks if not months and that uncertainty is the worst thing for markets.
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If the minutes are in a similar tone to that of the FOMC statement, then the dollar should stay supported rather than gain significantly.
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We will get a test of the $1.10 low.
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The euro is under pressure already today and this is adding to its problems.
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The PCE deflator will be extremely important today. The market looks at this very much as one of Fed's main indicators. If it's strong the market will not only be looking for a rate hike at this meeting but next time around as well.
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The market is now looking for some further rate hikes in the U.S. and that is going to keep the dollar supported in the near-term.
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The reform mandate is probably not going to be as strong as it would have been under an outright victory by Merkel.
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Investors do seem to be comfortable with the Koizumi agenda. The fact that there are ever clearer signs that he is going to be returned is going to provide the yen with support.
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The backdrop for the dollar is negative. G-7 comments were negative while the foreign reserves issue has come back into focus and is going to be a long term negative factor.
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During that (November) period the U.S. assets market was performing quite strongly. But I think in the coming months we are going to see some softness in that data as well.
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We think next year will be a very different story as excess global liquidity, the driver for carry trades, is drained by central banks.
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The PCE deflator will be extremely important today. If it's strong the market will not only be looking for a rate hike at this meeting but next time around as well.
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The market is still concerned about the interest rate and whether the Fed is on a possible pause.
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Expectations in the bond market have been high, thus any disappointment over the auction (particularly with the level of foreign participation) could put the dollar under renewed pressure.
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If we see inflation to continue to come in on the soft side, then the market will intensify its speculation that the peak in U.S. rates is quite close.
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I believe the German election result is the worst outcome possible for the euro. Not only is there no clear winner, it will be difficult for either side to form a coalition and there seems to be hostility to the idea of a grand coalition.
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Ultimately we will see sterling coming under renewed pressure. There are few supportive factors which are just holding it in place at the moment, namely M&A activity.
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The dollar is still the driving force as all the evidence points to a faster recovery in the United States than anywhere else.