Anthony H. Cordesman Quotes
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If you pull out troops too quickly now, and you see the situation in Iraq collapse before the midterm elections, the impact is going to be far more serious than if you keep the troops in at reasonable levels.
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It may well be more of a prelude to civil war than a step forward. Rather than an inclusive document, it is more a recipe for separation based on Shiite and Kurdish privilege.
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How quickly that will take place, and to what level it will reduce the cost and size of the U.S. presence, is something that has got to be determined by actual success, not some kind of calendar.
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How much of the battle space can the Iraqi forces take over, and who is actually doing the fighting - those are the key measurements. The measure cannot be the elimination of the insurgency, as desirable as that would be. You cannot eliminate all of the bombings.
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Both Iraqis and coalition people often exaggerate the role of foreign infiltrators and downplay the role of Iraqi resentment in the insurgency.
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They have begun to realize that when you focus only on the U.S. it gives the impression that the U.S. doesn't care about Iraqis. In these kinds of political battles you need to count your allies, not just yourself.
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If they succeed in creating an inclusive structure in virtually any peaceful form, Iraq succeeds. If they fail, the U.S.-led coalition fails almost regardless of its military success and that of the new Iraqi forces, and Iraq will move towards division, paralysis, civil conflict and/or a new strongman.
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The police have almost no protected vehicles, few heavy weapons similar to those of insurgents, are often located in extremely vulnerable buildings, and have weak communications. Corruption is a major issue.
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America and its allies face many risks and problems in Iraq, but it is all too easy to snatch defeat from the jaws of uncertainty.
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There is no clear or meaningful difference between insurgency and civil war, or between national terrorism and civil war for that matter.