Nate Silver Quotes
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The problem is that when polls are wrong, they tend to be wrong in the same direction. If they miss in New Hampshire, for instance, they all miss on the same mistake.
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Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.
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I guess I don't like the people in politics very much, to be blunt.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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We must become more comfortable with probability and uncertainty.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.
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Remember, the Congress doesn't get as many opportunities to make an impression with the public.
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We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.
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To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.
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When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake.
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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.
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The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.
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Voters memories will fade some.
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You don't want to influence the same system you are trying to forecast.
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A lot of the time nothing happens in a day.