Nate Silver Quotes
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I was looking for something like baseball, where there's a lot of data and the competition was pretty low. That's when I discovered politics.
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If there's a major foreign policy event, the President gets on TV, the Congress doesn't.
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First of all, I think it's odd that people who cover politics wouldn't have any political views.
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In politics people build whole reputations off of getting one thing right.
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The key to making a good forecast is not in limiting yourself to quantitative information.
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Every four years in the presidential election, some new precedent is broken.
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Walk rate is probably the area in which a pitcher has the most room to improve, but a rate that high is tough to overcome.
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The public is even more pessimistic about the economy than even the most bearish economists are.
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I have the same friends and the same bad habits.
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.
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I don't play fantasy baseball anymore now because it's too much work, and I feel like I have to hold myself up to such a high standard. I'm pretty serious about my fantasy football, though.
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We are living our lives more online and you need to have different ways to capture that.
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The thing that people associate with expertise, authoritativeness, kind of with a capital 'A,' don't correlate very well with who's actually good at making predictions.
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The Protestant Reformation had a lot to do with the printing press, where Martin Luther's theses were reproduced about 250,000 times, and so you had widespread dissemination of ideas that hadn't circulated in the mainstream before.
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We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
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To be a very, very minor, eighth-tier celebrity, you realize, 'Hey, celebrities are just like us.'
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Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.
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People attach too much importance to intangibles like heart, desire and clutch hitting.
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When you try to predict future E.R.A.'s with past E.R.A.'s, you're making a mistake.
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Actually, one of the better indicators historically of how well the stock market will do is just a Gallup poll, when you ask Americans if you think it's a good time to invest in stocks, except it goes the opposite direction of what you would expect. When the markets going up, it in fact makes it more prone toward decline.