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If Wall Street crashes, does Main Street follow? Not necessarily.
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In the shorter term, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Katrina will have a palpable effect on the national economy.
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There is of course the direct impact of the shutting down of the U.S. economy, the loss of several hundred thousand jobs at least, and reduced output production in the Gulf.
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We're much more data-driven. We need to continually re-evaluate our forecasts and think about the prospects for the economy and make our decisions based on what the information is that's coming into our hands.
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No economy can succeed without a high-quality workforce, particularly in an age of globalization and technical change.
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Consumers going through foreclosure typically will see their credit scores drop, raising longer-term questions about their ability to rebound financially and perhaps pursue a more sustainable home purchase at some later point.
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Equally important, stable prices allow people to rely on the dollar as a measure of value when making long-term contracts, engaging in long-term planning or lending for long periods.
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The economist John Maynard Keynes said that in the long run, we are all dead. If he were around today he might say that, in the long run, we are all on Social Security and Medicare.
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Central bankers got it right in the United States in 1987 when they avoided deflationary pressures as well as serious trouble in the banking system.
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Certainly, 9 percent unemployment and very slow growth is not a good situation.
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Different countries have different kinds of financial structures.
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By not tying policy to a small set of forecast indicators, we may sacrifice some degree of simplicity, but we are less likely to be misled when a favored variable behaves in an unusual manner.
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It takes about two and a half percent growth just to keep unemployment stable.
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Although I expect policy to follow the usual gradualist pattern, the pace of tightening will of necessity respond to evolving economic conditions, particularly the strength of the ongoing recovery in the labor market and developments on the inflation front.
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I got into economics because I wanted to make things better for the average person.
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We see that coming back in the fourth quarter and going on into next year.
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If you want to understand geology, study earthquakes. If you want to understand the economy, study the Depression.
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A money-financed tax cut is essentially equivalent to Milton Friedman's famous 'helicopter drop' of money.
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Obviously, I haven't succeeded in defusing the political concerns about the Fed.
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Economic management involves the operation of economic frameworks in real time - for example, in the private sector, the management of complex financial institutions or, in the public sector, the day-to-day supervision of those institutions.
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The Federal Reserve has always recognized the importance of allowing markets to work, and government oversight of financial firms will never be fully effective without the aid of strong market discipline.
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To avoid large and unsustainable budget deficits, the nation will ultimately have to choose among higher taxes, modifications to entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare, less spending on everything else from education to defense, or some combination of the above.
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As an educator myself, I understand the profound effect that good teachers and a quality education have on the lives of our young people.
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I and others were mistaken early on in saying that the subprime crisis would be contained. The causal relationship between the housing problem and the broad financial system was very complex and difficult to predict.