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Deflation can be particularly dangerous when a financial system is shaky, with household and corporate balance sheets in poor shape and banks undercapitalized and heavily burdened with bad loans.
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At this point, a leveling out or a modest softening of housing activity seems more likely than a sharp contraction, although significant uncertainty attends the outlook for home prices and construction.
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We must ensure that the funds we commit are spent wisely and with careful oversight.
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Doing this well requires a deep knowledge of the data mixed with a goodly dose of economic theory and economic judgment, ... Greenspan is, of course, a master.
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Our assessment currently is that the risks to inflation are perhaps the more significant at the moment, and we need to address that.
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Economic engineering is about the design and analysis of frameworks for achieving specific economic objectives.
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The resilience of the economy ... is helping it to absorb the shocks to energy and transportation from the hurricanes.
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Well, optimism's a good thing. It - makes people go out and - you know, start businesses and spend and do whatever is necessary to get the economy going.
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There appears to be some possibility that the recent trend toward disinflation will continue, primarily because of the potentially large amount of economic slack in the system.
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Under Chairman Greenspan, monetary policy has become increasingly transparent to the public and the financial markets, a trend that I strongly support.
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It must be awfully frustrating to get a small raise at work and then have it all eaten by a higher cost of commuting.
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History proves... that a smart central bank can protect the economy and the financial sector from the nastier side effects of a stock market collapse.
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I'm... fairly optimistic today about the ability of the U.S. economy to absorb these body blows.
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There are various estimates about the third quarter impact, ... Our CEA (Council of Economic Advisers) numbers are somewhere between a half and one percentage point on growth. That would still probably leave us at a decent rate of growth for the third quarter.
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In any given month, a large number of workers are being hired or are leaving their current jobs, illustrating the dynamism of the U.S. labor market.
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The risk exists that, with aggregate demand exhibiting considerable momentum, output could overshoot its sustainable path, leading ultimately in the absence of countervailing monetary policy action to further upward pressure on inflation.
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Clearly, it's going to affect the Gulf Coast economy quite a bit.
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A very important factor is the fact that inflation expectations are well-controlled and well-contained, which means that the Federal Reserve, unlike the 70s, doesn't have to react violently in terms of raising interest rates to contain the second- and third-round inflationary impacts. So I remain pretty optimistic about the economy.
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Economics is a highly sophisticated field of thought that is superb at explaining to policymakers precisely why the choices they made in the past were wrong. About the future, not so much.
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The movement toward a holistic approach to community development has been long in the making, but the housing crisis has motivated further progress.
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I come from Main Street, from a small town that's really depressed.
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I don't see any significant risk of a recession.
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Given the extent of the exposures of major banks around the world to A.I.G., and in light of the extreme fragility of the system, there was a significant risk that A.I.G.'s failure could have sparked a global banking panic.
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Inflation is up, driven by energy prices. Underlying core rates remain low, which is encouraging.