Nicholas Bloom Quotes
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Many people who have lost out in the last few decades voted for Trump. Trump will have a difficult time turning them into winners. The jobs of these people are not at risk because of Chinese or Mexican workers, but because of robots and computers. And new trade barriers and higher tariffs are not going to change that.
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Political stability was at most a factor in assessing developing countries or Russia. It is now also an issue in Western democracies.
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Once Brexit has actually been implemented, the world will be a very different place.
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The high-tech industry needs the immigration of highly qualified labor, from India, from China, from everywhere.
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The rise of populist parties such as the Five Star Movement in Italy and the Front National in France are rocking the political certainties of the last decades. And that also affects the economy.
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If you leave school at 16 then, in all probability, there is a machine that can do what you can do better and cheaper. And Trump can't do anything to change that.
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Elections themselves do not necessarily lead to more corporate uncertainty - quite the reverse, stable democracies create a reliable environment. And elections have caused hardly any change in the basic economic framework in the last few decades.
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Politics has become very unpredictable, making things so very difficult for individuals and also for companies.
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Trump can, like every government, trigger a short boom with borrowed money, just like he has announced. He appears to want to adopt the economic policy approach favored by Republicans of putting lots of money into building roads and cutting taxes. Markets like that. But, at the end of the day, someone always has to foot the bill.
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Decreasing economic growth and increasing inequality leads to increased uncertainty.