Predictions Quotes
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Rule 1. Original data should be presented in a way that will preserve the evidence in the original data for all the predictions assumed to be useful.
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I never make predictions and I never will.
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What makes evolution a scientific explanation is that it makes testable predictions. You only believe theories when they make non-obvious predictions that are confirmed by scientific evidence.
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One of the things that I think we have learned is that we should all be very careful about making predictions about the future.
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Let there be a special place in Hell for pundits who make predictions.
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Bayes’s Rule tells us that when it comes to making predictions based on limited evidence, few things are as important as having good priors—that is, a sense of the distribution from which we expect that evidence to have come. Good predictions thus begin with having good instincts about when we’re dealing with a normal distribution and when with a power-law distribution. As it turns out, Bayes’s Rule offers us a simple but dramatically different predictive rule of thumb for each.
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The first company to produce a certified two seat electric aircraft with a 1.5 hour range will dominate the aviation training market.
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If you want to be a good intuitive Bayesian—if you want to naturally make good predictions, without having to think about what kind of prediction rule is appropriate—you need to protect your priors. Counterintuitively, that might mean turning off the news.
